MP teams up with defense department

Just days before the Apple deal, MP secured a US$400 million preferred equity investment from the US Department of Defense (DoD), making the Pentagon its largest shareholder.

The funds will support a second magnet manufacturing plant — called the 10X facility — which is slated for commissioning in 2028 and will increase MP’s annual magnet output to 10,000 metric tons.

The government has also committed to purchasing 100 percent of the magnets produced at the new plant for 10 years, guaranteeing a floor price of US$110 per kilogram for neodymium-praseodymium oxide.

If market prices fall below that level, the DoD will pay the difference. Once production begins, the government will also receive 30 percent of any profits above the guaranteed price.

With operations spanning mining, separation, metallization and magnet production, MP is currently the only US firm with end-to-end capabilities for rare earth magnet manufacturing. The company is also expecting a US$150 million Pentagon loan to enhance its heavy rare earths separation capabilities at Mountain Pass.

MP’s Independence facility in Texas, alongside the upcoming 10X plant, anchors its downstream production strategy. The recycled feedstock used for Apple’s magnets will be sourced from post-industrial waste and retired electronics — reducing environmental impact while reinforcing resource resilience.

Apple, for its part, is pressing ahead with its US$500 billion US manufacturing initiative.

Earlier this year, it announced plans for a new artificial intelligence server factory in Texas and signaled continued interest in reshoring key parts of its production ecosystem.

Silver price, April 1 to July 17, 2025.

Chart via Trading Economics.

At the start of June, the price of silver soared to 14 year highs, opening the month at US$32.99 and rising to US$36.76 by June 9. Ultimately, the metal reached a year-to-date high of US$37.12 on June 17. Although the price has eased slightly from its high, it has remained in the US$36 to US$37 range to the end of the quarter and into July.

Silver supply/demand balance still tight

Various factors impacted silver in the second quarter of the year, but industrial demand was a primary driver in both upward and downward movements. Over the past several years, silver has been increasingly utilized in industrial sectors, particularly in the production of photovoltaics. In fact, according to the Silver Institute’s latest World Silver Survey, released on April 16, demand for the metal reached a record 680.5 million ounces in 2024.

Artificial intelligence, vehicle electrification and grid infrastructure all contributed to demand growth

At the same time, mine supply has failed to keep up, with the institute reporting a 148.9 million ounce production shortfall. This marked the fourth consecutive year of structural deficit in the silver market.

“(We have) flat supply, growing demand — demand that’s nearly 20 percent above supply,’ he said. ‘And our ability to meet those deficits is shrinking because we’re tapping into these aboveground stockpiles that have shrunk by about 800 million ounces in the last four years, which is equivalent to an entire year’s mine supply. So it’s the perfect storm.’

But industrial demand can send the silver price in either direction.

The chaos caused by Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs has caused some consternation among investors.

While gold and silver have traditionally both been viewed as safe-haven assets, silver’s increasing industrial demand has decoupled it slightly from that aspect. When Trump announced his ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs on April 2, silver was impacted due to fears that a recession could cause demand for the metal to slip.

Although the dip in silver was short-lived, it was one of its steepest falls in recent years.

“If a global recession really starts, silver will most likely nosedive momentarily. In terms of its 2025 performance, silver growth has been largely bolstered by consolidated precious metals group appreciation, additionally beefed up by relative USD weakness.’

Geopolitics and the silver price

Adding to the tailwinds is a growing east-west divide. Due to its usage in industrial components, particularly those related to the military and energy sectors, and its role as a safe haven, silver is being influenced by geopolitics.

June’s price rally came alongside growing speculation that Israel was preparing to attack Iranian nuclear sites. Investors became concerned that war could disrupt international trade and oil movements in the region.

Ultimately, their concerns were proven right, and Israel launched attacks on June 12; the US then bombed key nuclear facilities on June 21. While the escalation is new, the underlying politics have been simmering for years.

Sanctions against Russia have strengthened support among the BRICS nations, which have been working to reduce their reliance on US dollar assets, such as treasuries, and increase trade in their own currencies.

But they may also be working to separate themselves from western commodities markets. In October 2024, Russia floated the idea of creating a precious metals exchange to its BRICS counterparts. If established, it could shake up pricing for commodities like silver, allowing Russia to circumvent sanctions and trade with its bloc partners.

While the exchange is still just an idea, a bifurcated world is not. While the US has targeted most nations with tariffs, it has singled out China. Much of the first half of the year saw the world’s two largest economies escalate import fees with one another, with China even restricting the export of rare earth elements to the US.

Discussions on national security and critical minerals have been at the forefront for the last several years. Still, they have become even more pronounced with the US and China on tense footing.

“Even if that’s going to happen, industrial use value — building infrastructure, building national security, national energy priorities — needs a lot of silver, and there just simply isn’t enough supply out of the ground to meet the demand. That’s long-term demand above the ground. This has been a thing, but right now, because of these geopolitical forces and realignments, silver is going to drop more into that industrial role,” she said.

Silver price forecast for 2025

Overall, the expectation is that without new mine supply and dwindling aboveground stockpiles, silver is likely to remain in deficit for some time. Other factors, like Trump tariffs and geopolitics, aren’t likely to disappear either.

Demand could ease off if a global recession were to materialize, but safe-haven investing could offset declines.

For his part, Krauth thinks the silver price is likely to remain above the US$35 mark, but it could fluctuate and he suggested a rally in the US dollar could push the silver price down. However, he also sees some pressure easing on the recession side of the equation if the US signs tariff deals that would eliminate some uncertainty.

“US$40, let’s say by the end of this year,’ he said, adding, ‘Frankly, I could see something really realistically above that, maybe an additional 10 percent if the scenario plays out right.’

He doesn’t think that’s the end. In the longer term, Krauth sees silver going even higher. He pointed to the current gold-silver ratio, which is around 92:1, compared to an average of 60:1 over the last 50 years.

“So we could go to, who knows, somewhere like maybe 40 or 30 to one in the ratio. That would be tremendous for silver — that could bring silver above US$100. I’m not saying that’s happening tomorrow, but in the next couple of years I would say that’s certainly something that could easily be in the cards,” Krauth said.

Fundamentals and geopolitics aligned for silver in the first half of 2025, and barring a recession, they are likely to provide tailwinds in the second half. Whether the price climbs or continues to find support at US$35 is yet to be seen.

5 Biggest US Defense Stocks

Today, the US accounts for the largest share of global defense spending, representing about 37 percent of worldwide military outlays. In fact, military spending represents about 12 percent of the US federal budget for fiscal year 2025. Worsening geopolitical tensions are expected to increase the US government’s spending on defense technology.

1. RTX (NYSE:RTX)

Market cap: US$189.46 billion

One of the most well-known American defense companies, RTX operates in the defense, aviation, space, electronics and cybersecurity sectors. The company captured more than US$80.7 billion in revenue for 2024, up 17.15 percent from the previous year.

The company’s defense solutions arm Raytheon was awarded a US$250 million contract in June 2025 from Japan’s Mitsubishi Electric (TSE:6503) for licensed production of ESSM Block 2 short to medium-range guided missiles.

‘Under the Direct Commercial Sale contract, Raytheon will provide missile kits, parts, and components as well as technical support for missile production at (Mitsubishi Electric) in Japan,’ the press release stated.

2. The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA)

Market cap: US$151.52 billion

Another heavyweight in the aerospace and defense industry, Boeing designs and manufactures airplanes, rotorcraft, rockets, satellites, telecommunications equipment and missiles.

Revenue for the company declined by 14.5 percent in 2024 over the previous year to come in at US$66.5 billion. The majority of that loss was driven by its airplane segment; its defense segment revenue dropped 4 percent over the same period. The company’s aviation sector has faced heavy scrutiny in recent years after several disastrous incidents linked to the Boeing 737.

As for its defense business, in March 2025, Boeing reported that production of its air defense systems, Patriot Advanced Capability-3 seekers, reached an all-time high in 2024. According to the release, the company produces the seekers as a subcontractor for Lockheed Martin and has sold them to 17 countries, including the US and Ukraine.

3. Honeywell International (NASDAQ:HON)

Market cap: US$144.57 billion

Engineering and technology company Honeywell International develops and manufactures technological solutions for a variety of sectors. The company’s four business divisions are aerospace technologies, building automation, energy and sustainability solutions, and industrial automation. Honeywell’s sales came in at US$38.5 billion in 2024, up 5 percent from the previous year.

Honeywell has numerous defense contracts with government agencies around the world, including right at home with the US Department of Defense (DoD) and US Armed Forces. In May 2025, the company’s JetWave X satellite communication system was selected for use in the advanced US Army aircraft ARES.

4. Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT)

Market cap: US$107.57 billion

Lockheed Martin’s business is concentrated on aerospace products and advanced defense technology systems. The F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jet is among its most notable products, but Lockheed is also well known for its space launchers, ballistic missiles and satellites. The company’s 2024 net sales increased by 5.15 percent from the previous year to just over US$71 billion.

Unsurprisingly, about half of Lockheed Martin’s annual sales are made to the US DoD. However, governments around the world have purchasing contracts with the company to supply their militaries with defense products such as F-16 and F-35 fighter jets. In April 2025, the Royal Norwegian Air Force received the last two F-35 fighter jets of the 52 ordered in its most recent supply contract.

5. General Dynamics (NYSE:GD)

Market cap: US$76.57 billion

Although best known for its Gulfstream business jets, General Dynamics designs and manufactures wheeled and tracked combat vehicles, submarines, weapons and communications systems, as well as munitions. The company garnered more than US$47.72 billion in revenue for 2024, up 12.88 percent from the previous year.

General Dynamics is a major defense contractor for the US military as well as allied nations abroad. In April 2025, the company was awarded US$12 billion in contract modifications for the construction of two Virginia-class submarines for the US Navy, bringing the potential value of the contract to US$17.2 billion. This type of sub is designed for anti-submarine and surface ship warfare and special operations support.

5 Biggest US Defense ETFs

Investors looking to mitigate the risk of investing in individual stocks can diversify their portfolio with defense ETFs. While ETFs aren’t without risk, they are often considered a more stable investment compared to stocks as they allocate funds across a variety of stocks that are rebalanced by an asset manager to meet the return goals of the fund.

The biggest US Defense ETFs by assets under management are listed below according to data from ETF Database.

1. iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (BATS:ITA)

Assets under management: US$7.83 billion

The iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF launched in May 2006. This fund invests in large, generally stable companies in the aerospace and defense sector, particularly those with the majority of their revenues based on long-term government contracts.

The ETF has 40 holdings and an expense ratio of 0.4 percent. IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF’s top holdings include RTX, Boeing, Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics as well as another important name in the industry, L3Harris Technologies (NYSE:LHX).

2. Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF (NYSEARCA:PPA)

Assets under management: US$5.41 billion

Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF launched in October 2005. Like ITA, it also tracks large, stable aerospace and defense stocks with steady revenue streams from long-term government contracts.

While it has more holdings than ITA at 57, it also has a higher expense ratio at 0.58 percent. Unlike ITA, Honeywell is listed among Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF’s top holdings in addition to the other biggest US defense stocks.

3. SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF (NYSEARCA:XAR)

Assets under management: US$3.76 billion

SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF, which launched in September 2011, offers exposure to large cap stocks in this sector. It has the lowest expense ratio on this list at 0.35 percent.

Of the 40 holdings XAR tracks, the most heavily weighted US defense stocks include RTX, Boeing, Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics as well as Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) and AeroVironment (NASDAQ:AVAV).

4. Global X Defense Tech ETF (NYSEARCA:SHLD)

Assets under management: US$2.69 billion

Launched in September 2023, Global X Defense Tech ETF is the newest defense ETF on the market. While it does offer a geographic diversity of exposure to the overall defense sector, its holdings are just over 50 percent based in the United States. This ETF has an expense ratio of 0.50 percent.

SHLD has 43 holdings, including the biggest US defense stocks such as Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics, but is also heavily weighted in Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR) and L3Harris Technologies.

5. Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull 3X Shares (NYSEARCA:DFEN)

Assets under management: US$249.19 million

Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull 3X Shares launched in May 2017 with the goal of tripling the daily return of an index of major defense industry stocks.

DFEN has the highest expense ratio on this list at 0.95 percent. Some of the most heavily weighted stocks of its 39 holdings are Boeing, Lockheed Martin and RTX.