The current tariff environment is full of sudden moves that could have broad and long-lasting effects. The challenge is that we don’t know what those long-term impacts will be, mainly because it’s unclear how long the tariffs will last or what things will look like if they become permanent. That makes it incredibly hard to plan or make smart decisions right now.

Near-term shocks are preventing us from estimating the longer-term picture. Perhaps an effective way to counterbalance the geopolitical and market news with some objectivity, then, is to look under the stock market’s hood and take a good look at its breadth of movement—specifically, a longer-term summation of advancing vs. declining stocks. One indicator that’s designed specifically to do this, and one you might want to consider, is the McClellan Summation Index.

What Does the McClellan Summation Index Tell You?

Derived from the McClellan Oscillator, the McClellan Summation Index is a long-term market breadth indicator that shows whether more stocks are generally advancing or declining over time.

Think of it as a cumulative McClellan Oscillator of sorts. When the McClellan Oscillator is positive (above zero, meaning more advancers than decliners), the McClellan Summation Index trends upward; when the oscillator is negative (more decliners than advancers), the corresponding summation index trends downward. As you’ll see in Figure 1, uptrend and downtrend are color-coded black and red, respectively, so you distinguish the turns.

Generally, when the summation index is above zero (or +500), it signals bullish momentum (+500 signaling extremely bullish momentum); below zero (or –500), it reflects bearish (or exceedingly bearish) momentum. By smoothing out the short-term noise of the McClellan Oscillator, the summation can help you gauge the underlying strength or weakness of a market trend.

And smoothing out the noise coming out of the current trade war environment is probably something you’ll want to see.

Take a look at a three-year chart of the NYSE McClellan Summation Index paired with the S&P 500.

FIGURE 1. THREE-YEAR CHART OF THE NYSE MCCLELLAN SUMMATION INDEX WITH THE S&P 500. Notice the index turning points as they correspond to the ZigZag lines in the S&P. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The NYSE McClellan Summation Index is in negative territory below the zero line, and the S&P is undergoing a steep drop.  The Summation Index shows that declining stocks are far outnumbering advancing stocks, providing a breadth-informed perspective from which to view the broader market’s bearish decline.

While you can wait for the summation index to cross over the zero line (or even above 500), one way to interpret an early bullish signal is to apply a simple moving average (SMA), such as a 20-day SMA (see purple-dotted line).

As you can see in the chart above, there were many crossovers, indicating upturns and downturns. So, how might you avoid getting whipsawed and taking action on a false signal? You have to watch the price action, particularly the swing highs and lows (remember, an uptrend consists of HH + HL, and the reverse is true of a downtrend). This is where the ZigZag line comes in handy.

• The chart illustrates the S&P 500 trending higher from the last quarter of 2022 to the breakdown in March 2025.
• Note how almost all crossovers below the negative line (highlighted by the blue circles) forecasted new highs in the S&P 500.
• The June 2023 crossover was the exception, but the pullback stayed well above the March 2023 low, sustaining its primary uptrend.
• In October 2024, the summation index began falling as the S&P 500 continued making new highs.
• The last SMA crossover preceded a new high, but the S&P finally broke down (see dotted line), leading to where we are now.

At the Close: What Now?

The broader market is trading on tariff-driven headlines, with policy shifts carrying enough weight to reshape the underlying fundamentals. Short-term technicals reflect this uncertainty through heightened volatility, some of which feels nearly unprecedented. In contrast, the longer-term picture—viewed through the lens of the McClellan Summation Index—appears steadier, though still susceptible to noise.

For long-term investors seeking early signs of a shift, watch the Summation Index closely. A bullish crossover above its moving average may be the first clue, but the real confirmation comes from trend behavior. Use tools like the ZigZag indicator to track swing highs and lows—what you want to see are higher highs and higher lows taking shape. Until then, most other market interpretations remain at the mercy of sudden geopolitical shifts—moves that are unpredictable in both timing and duration.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Stock market analysis, technical indicators, and market trends are crucial for informed investing. StockCharts is making those things easier, and Grayson Roze is here to show you how.

In this video, Grayson provides an in-depth walk-through of the all-new Market Summary Page. This comprehensive tool offers a top-down overview of global and U.S. financial markets, featuring real-time data and professionally curated charts. Learn how to navigate the markets with ease using this centralized resource, designed to enhance your trading strategies and investment decisions. Whether you’re a seasoned trader or just starting out, understanding market dynamics is key. Grayson’s insights will help you leverage the Market Summary Page to stay ahead in the ever-evolving financial landscape.

This video originally premiered on April 11, 2024. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated Grayson Roze page on StockCharts TV.

You can view previously recorded videos from Grayson at this link.

This week, we’re getting back to earnings season during the shortened four-day period.

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) reports on the heels of JP Morgan’s solid results that saw its shares rally by 12.3% and recapture its 200-day moving average.

Watch the trading revenue numbers as added volatility should help their bottom line exceed expectations. The implied one-day move for earnings day is +/- 7.7% and, if the market is moving that morning, then expect more-than-normal movement.

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF GS. If the stock rallies watch the $520 level. A break above this level could be a positive move.

Technically, shares have been put through the wringer. GS’s stock price has broken many key trendlines and support levels along the way. Maybe, just maybe, it has found a floor.

Like most stocks in this current environment, the swings have been wild. Lines in the sand have been drawn, and maybe GS can follow JPM’s lead as the charts are similar.

Things have been extremely volatile; the range between support and resistance is wide. The $440/$450 area looks to be a strong area of support for now. However, the trend has changed, and there has been much technical damage done. There are levels of resistance above, but it seems more likely that they may get tested before any retest of the lows.

On a rally, watch the $520 level, from which it broke down after breaching its 200-day moving average. If shares eclipse that, then it will likely experience a run back to its 200-day at $540. That would take the stock’s price back to its new downtrend line and should be met with much selling pressure.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) has experienced some of the wildest swings since making a new high in early March. The stock price has fallen over 16%. Look for it to get back to its winning ways when the company reports on Tuesday.

Year-to-date, shares are up 5% and in one of the strongest sectors for those playing defense. Like all companies reporting, the focus will be on management’s commentary on future earnings guidance and potential impacts from global economic conditions.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF JNJ. The stock price could see more downside, or it could move up to its 200-day moving average.Technically, shares are in a bit of a no-man’s land. Price action has been streaky and now they report in the middle of this recent wide range.

The bear case is that shares have yet to reach oversold levels and test major support. They came close, but didn’t get below $140. So more of a downside could be reached before jumping into the stock.

The bull case, at a minimum, is a reversion back to the 200-day moving average, just above current levels. The best case is that it has little tariff exposure, making it a safer haven in tough times and may run back towards old highs.

Overall, outside a safe 3.3% dividend, the case to jump in for a trade is tough to make given its recent price action.

Netflix (NFLX) has given back all its gains from its last earnings cycle and hopes it can regain those levels when it reports on Thursday.

Shares are seen as a safer haven in this tariff war environment, but have not been immune to the wild market swings we have been seeing. NFLX has continued to put up solid numbers and fared better than most growth stocks during this time.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF NFLX. A head and shoulders top, bullish divergence in the RSI, and bullish MACD crossover lean toward a bullish move.

Technically, there are several more positives than negatives. NFLX’s stock price has formed a head-and-shoulders top, but failed to break its neckline at the $820 level and bounced. That was one positive development, but the pattern still hangs over the stock for now.

Secondly, there’s a bullish divergence in its relative strength index (RSI) when you compare it to recent price action. As price made new lows, the RSI did not. That indicates something has changed — this recent sell-off was not as strong as its predecessor and that a reversal may be coming.

Lastly, we may be experiencing a bullish crossover in its moving average convergence/divergence (MACD). While we always want confirmation, sometimes anticipating the move may be worth the risk. When tied into the above two factors, I believe it is.

The stock has a history of gaps after earnings, so watch that gap and price action immediately afterward. If NFLX experiences a gap higher and above the 50-day moving average, you can use that as a stop to manage risk. To the downside, watch to see if the $820 level holds. If it doesn’t, there could be an accelerated move to the downside.

Another interesting week in the stock market comes to an end.

The past few days were flooded with the twists and turns of President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, which were later put on a 90-day pause except for China, which got hit with higher tariffs.

Then came China’s retaliation, which stirred the pot even more. Where tariffs between the two countries will end up is anyone’s guess, but all it’s doing now is adding to even more uncertainty.

The wild swings that we are seeing in the stock market’s price action make it a challenging environment for investors and traders. And with consumer confidence weakening, investors are getting nervous and confused. When the stock market environment is dominated by wild swings based on news headlines, it makes analyzing price charts more difficult. Many charts are technically broken down, and indicators tend to be more skewed due to the recent wide-ranging days.

The daily chart of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is a great example of how the crazy wild swings of the last six days aren’t doing much to help determine trend direction.

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF SPY. The last six trading days have been erratic to say the least. It makes it impossible to determine whether the bulls or bears are in control. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The last six candlestick bars display erratic movement with wide range days. Note the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is trending downward and getting close to the 200-day SMA. While the overall trend is pointing lower, it’s difficult to tell if SPY will move lower or reverse.

You’re better off looking at a longer-term chart, such as a weekly or monthly one, to get a sense of the overall trend direction. The weekly chart of the SPY is less erratic and restores faith in the technical analysis.

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF SPY. This is much calmer and clearly shows the longer-term trend. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Even though it’s clear that SPY has broken below its 40-week SMA, it’s still above its 150-week, which is a ray of hope. Let’s see where it ends up next week. The more concerning point is that the range of the last two bars is the widest it has been in the last five years.

Watch Bonds

You can’t get past this week’s market action without noticing bonds. With higher tariffs, you’d expect yields to fall, but we’re not seeing that happen. On Friday, the 10-year Treasury yield hit a high of 4.59% on Friday and the 30-year went as high as 4.99%. Although yields pulled back, they are still relatively high.

Bond prices came back a bit after hitting a low that almost coincided with its January low (red dashed line). See the chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) below.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF TLT. Note the steep decline in the last six bars. Although bond prices came back on Friday, there’s no knowing what will happen next week. Watch this chart closely. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.The big question is if Friday’s upside move is enough to reverse the trend in bond prices. Momentum indicators are still weak and trending to the downside, and, from a technical perspective, it’ll take a lot for bond prices to trend higher.

Falling bond prices don’t bode well for investors. Typically, when equities fall, bond prices rise. Yet we’re seeing the opposite occurring. That investors are selling US bonds and looking at alternative safe-havens worries Wall Street. The rise in bond prices also makes the White House nervous, and it puts the Federal Reserve in a tight spot.

Tariffs can send inflation higher and, generally, an inflationary environment does not support interest rate cuts. But if the US finds itself in a position where inflation is rising and economic growth is slowing, the Fed may have to cut rates.

Who knows what we will hear next week? Remember, this is a headline-driven market, and any news can send values moving drastically in either direction. On Friday afternoon, stocks reversed on the heels of a news release from the White House stating that a deal with China could be in the works. You can’t rule out a weekend risk.

The Dollar Weakens

Another unusual move is the weakening of the US dollar. Increasing tariffs should strengthen the US dollar. Instead, the dollar is weakening. The daily chart of Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) shows the ETF is trading well below its 200-day SMA (red line).

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF UUP. The ETF is trading below its 200-day SMA. Will it hit its 52-week low? Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The US dollar is showing no signs of a turnaround in the US dollar. The euro, British pound, Swiss franc, and Japanese yen are strengthening against the dollar. Pull up the charts of  $EURUSD, $GDPUSD, $USDSCHF, and $USDJPY on the StockCharts platform and follow the currency markets. Or head over to the revised Market Summary page, scroll down to the Other Assets panel, and click the Currencies tab. you’ll see all the currency pairs listed.

The Bottom Line

Downtrends in equities, US bond prices, and the US dollar send a message that investors are selling US assets. Where are they parking their cash? Gold is one place. Interest in gold has gone through the roof with gold prices hitting a new all-time high on Friday. When things are as uncertain as they are now, it’s time to step back and observe the macro landscape. That means viewing long-term equity charts, bonds, and currencies. Bonds are critical in this landscape. They give a big picture of the overall strength of the US economy.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

• S&P 500 up 5.70% on the week, at 5363.36, Dow Jones Industrial Average up 4.95% on the week at 40,212.71; Nasdaq Composite down 7.29% on the week at 16,724.46
• $VIX down 17.10% on the week, closing at 37.56.
• Best performing sector for the week: Information Technology
• Worst performing sector for the week: Real Estate
• Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Elbit Systems, Ltd. (ESLT); Anglogold Ashanti Ltd. (AU); Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR); Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI); RocketLab USA, Inc. (RKLB)

On the Radar Next Week

• Earnings from Bank of America (BAC), United Airlines (UAL), Citigroup (C); Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), Charles Schwab (SCHW), and many more
• March export and import prices
• March Retail Sales
• March Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production
• March Housing Starts
• Several Fed speeches

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Stock market rally, sector rotation, and earnings movers dominate this week’s analysis with Mary Ellen McGonagle. In this video, Mary Ellen reviews where the market stands after last week’s bounce and explains how White House activity drove major price action.

Mary Ellen also highlights two top-performing sectors that outpaced the broader indexes and discusses stocks to watch in those areas. She also covers earnings season winners and losers, and provides insights into what to expect in the week ahead as big tech earnings hit the spotlight.

Stay ahead with expert technical analysis, sector trends, and actionable stock market insights.

The video dropped on April 11, 2025. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.